the HMLC project and also to inform the economic case, which assesses costs
and benefits as part of an overall assessment of value for money. The
information requested forms part of the HMLC business case and is therefore
exempt from disclosure under s.35(1)(a) of FOIA as it relates to the
formulation and development of government policy; specifically, the means
by which government will fulfil its commitment (that DLUHC leads on
delivering) to establish the HMLC. The policy is one of “government policy” as
the final policy decisions relating to the delivery of the HMLC are subject to
approval by the Department’s Ministers. The Business Case relates to the
HMLC being designed and built in the Victoria Tower Gardens (“VTG”).
Although the Government’s commitment to building a HMLC was announced
in January 2015, the policy on delivering the various components of this
project is still under development. Policy decisions on the operation of HMLC
will continue to be taken up until the point that it is built and functioning.
Decisions relating in particular to the delivery and site selection of the HMLC
will continue to be live policy until all necessary consents for the selected site
have been awarded and construction is underway. The purpose of using
optimism bias and putting a business case together is to inform policy
decisions. The Appellant clearly has a mistaken view that optimism bias is
approached in a mechanistic manner with reference to numbers only, by
taking figures from Treasury Guidance, applying them to the project, and
that it is simply a matter of providing those figures from the business case to
the Appellant. When in fact, a lot of carefully considered and debated
judgement is required at each stage of the decision-making process in order
to formulate the business case, and in order to inform the wider decisionmaking process about the design and build of the HMLC. The application of
HMT’s guidance on optimism bias to the estimates of construction costs
require judgements to be made in relation to the degree of risk associated
with construction of a particular design on a particular site. When applied to
the economic case, the application of optimism bias estimates requires
judgements to be made in relation to a wide range of factors including the
degree of confidence in responses to opinion surveys. Those considerations
are not capable of mechanistic extraction without providing very large
sections or even the whole of the business case to give context to the figures.
In order to answer the Appellant’s FOIA request, therefore, figures alone
cannot be provided as they will not make sense. The whole business case, or
very large parts of it, would need to be given. In doing so, this would expose a
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